LEC vs NAP
Lecce (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 23.2% fair 4.30
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
NAP win 52.3% fair 1.91
Expected Goals
LEC
0.94
—
1.68
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 NAP | 12.2% | |
| LEC 1-1 NAP | 11.5% | |
| LEC 0-2 NAP | 10.2% | |
| LEC 1-2 NAP | 9.7% | |
| LEC 0-0 NAP | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).