LEC vs PAR
Lecce (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 28.9% fair 3.46
PAR win 30.1% fair 3.32
Expected Goals
LEC
1.19
—
0.98
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | fair 2.31 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-0 PAR | 13.6% | |
| LEC 1-1 PAR | 13.3% | |
| LEC 0-0 PAR | 11.5% | |
| LEC 0-1 PAR | 11.2% | |
| LEC 2-0 PAR | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).