LEC vs ROM
Lecce (home) vs Roma · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
LEC win 23.2% fair 4.30
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
ROM win 51.9% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.6% / 24.6% / 54.9%.
Expected Goals
LEC
0.90
—
1.64
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 0-1 ROM | 12.9% | |
| LEC 1-1 ROM | 11.6% | |
| LEC 0-2 ROM | 10.6% | |
| LEC 1-2 ROM | 9.6% | |
| LEC 0-0 ROM | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).