LEC vs SAS
Lecce (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
LEC win 36.5% fair 2.74
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
SAS win 36.5% fair 2.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.5% / 27.0% / 37.5%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.23
—
1.27
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 SAS | 12.8% | |
| LEC 0-1 SAS | 10.4% | |
| LEC 1-0 SAS | 10.1% | |
| LEC 0-0 SAS | 8.2% | |
| LEC 1-2 SAS | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).