LEC vs SAS
Lecce (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 35.8% fair 2.79
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
SAS win 38.4% fair 2.61
Expected Goals
LEC
1.31
—
1.41
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 SAS | 12.2% | |
| LEC 0-1 SAS | 9.3% | |
| LEC 1-0 SAS | 8.6% | |
| LEC 1-2 SAS | 8.6% | |
| LEC 2-1 SAS | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).