LEC vs TOR
Lecce (home) vs Torino · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 36.7% fair 2.73
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
TOR win 37.5% fair 2.67
Expected Goals
LEC
1.33
—
1.38
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 TOR | 12.2% | |
| LEC 0-1 TOR | 9.2% | |
| LEC 1-0 TOR | 8.8% | |
| LEC 1-2 TOR | 8.4% | |
| LEC 2-1 TOR | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).