LEC vs UDI
Lecce (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 38.1% fair 2.63
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
UDI win 35.7% fair 2.80
Expected Goals
LEC
1.33
—
1.31
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 UDI | 12.4% | |
| LEC 1-0 UDI | 9.5% | |
| LEC 0-1 UDI | 9.3% | |
| LEC 2-1 UDI | 8.3% | |
| LEC 1-2 UDI | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).