LEC vs VEN
Lecce (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEC win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
VEN win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.1% / 26.2% / 26.7%.
Expected Goals
LEC
1.47
—
1.04
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEC 1-1 VEN | 12.4% | |
| LEC 1-0 VEN | 12.0% | |
| LEC 2-1 VEN | 9.1% | |
| LEC 2-0 VEN | 8.8% | |
| LEC 0-1 VEN | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEC goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).