MIL vs ATA
AC Milan (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 3-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.98 / ×0.91
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MIL win 49.0% fair 2.04
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
ATA win 25.2% fair 3.96
Expected Goals
MIL
1.53
—
0.99
ATA
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): MIL ×0.977 (matched 11), ATA ×0.905 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 ATA | 12.2% | |
| MIL 1-1 ATA | 12.2% | |
| MIL 2-0 ATA | 9.4% | |
| MIL 2-1 ATA | 9.3% | |
| MIL 0-0 ATA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).