MIL vs ATA
AC Milan (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
MIL win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
ATA win 29.9% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.8% / 25.5% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.51
—
1.18
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 ATA | 12.1% | |
| MIL 1-0 ATA | 10.3% | |
| MIL 2-1 ATA | 9.1% | |
| MIL 0-1 ATA | 8.0% | |
| MIL 2-0 ATA | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).