MIL vs BOL
AC Milan (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 53.1% fair 1.88
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
BOL win 22.9% fair 4.37
Expected Goals
MIL
1.73
—
1.01
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 BOL | 11.3% | |
| MIL 1-0 BOL | 11.2% | |
| MIL 2-1 BOL | 9.8% | |
| MIL 2-0 BOL | 9.7% | |
| MIL 0-1 BOL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).