MIL vs BOL
AC Milan (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
MIL win 50.3% fair 1.99
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
BOL win 25.0% fair 4.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.5% / 24.3% / 24.2%.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.67
—
1.06
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 BOL | 11.6% | |
| MIL 1-0 BOL | 10.9% | |
| MIL 2-1 BOL | 9.6% | |
| MIL 2-0 BOL | 9.1% | |
| MIL 0-1 BOL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).