MIL vs CAG
AC Milan (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 60.0% fair 1.67
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
CAG win 17.7% fair 5.65
Expected Goals
MIL
1.89
—
0.84
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 CAG | 12.3% | |
| MIL 2-0 CAG | 11.6% | |
| MIL 1-1 CAG | 10.4% | |
| MIL 2-1 CAG | 9.8% | |
| MIL 3-0 CAG | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).