MIL vs COM
AC Milan (home) vs Como · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 40.7% fair 2.45
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
COM win 33.4% fair 3.00
Expected Goals
MIL
1.42
—
1.27
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 COM | 12.2% | |
| MIL 1-0 COM | 9.6% | |
| MIL 2-1 COM | 8.7% | |
| MIL 0-1 COM | 8.6% | |
| MIL 1-2 COM | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).