MIL vs COM
AC Milan (home) vs Como · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
MIL win 39.3% fair 2.55
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
COM win 34.7% fair 2.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 25.8% / 35.3%.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.39
—
1.31
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 COM | 12.3% | |
| MIL 1-0 COM | 9.4% | |
| MIL 0-1 COM | 8.8% | |
| MIL 2-1 COM | 8.5% | |
| MIL 1-2 COM | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).