MIL vs FIO
AC Milan (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 63.9% fair 1.56
Draw 20.0% fair 5.00
FIO win 16.1% fair 6.22
Expected Goals
MIL
2.18
—
0.90
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 FIO | 10.9% | |
| MIL 1-0 FIO | 10.1% | |
| MIL 2-1 FIO | 9.8% | |
| MIL 1-1 FIO | 9.0% | |
| MIL 3-0 FIO | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).