MIL vs FRO
AC Milan (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 63.3% fair 1.58
Draw 20.1% fair 4.99
FRO win 16.7% fair 6.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.9% / 18.9% / 14.2%.
Expected Goals
MIL
2.21
—
0.91
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 FRO | 10.7% | |
| MIL 2-1 FRO | 9.8% | |
| MIL 1-0 FRO | 9.7% | |
| MIL 1-1 FRO | 8.9% | |
| MIL 3-0 FRO | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).