MIL vs FRO
AC Milan (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
MIL win 62.8% fair 1.59
Draw 21.0% fair 4.75
FRO win 16.2% fair 6.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.5% / 19.7% / 12.8%.
Expected Goals
MIL
2.06
—
0.76
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 FRO | 12.6% | |
| MIL 1-0 FRO | 12.3% | |
| MIL 2-1 FRO | 9.6% | |
| MIL 1-1 FRO | 9.3% | |
| MIL 3-0 FRO | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).