MIL vs GEN
AC Milan (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 62.6% fair 1.60
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
GEN win 16.4% fair 6.10
Expected Goals
MIL
2.03
—
0.84
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 GEN | 11.7% | |
| MIL 1-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| MIL 2-1 GEN | 9.8% | |
| MIL 1-1 GEN | 9.7% | |
| MIL 3-0 GEN | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).