MIL vs JUV
AC Milan (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
JUV win 29.1% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
MIL
1.52
—
1.16
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 JUV | 12.1% | |
| MIL 1-0 JUV | 10.5% | |
| MIL 2-1 JUV | 9.2% | |
| MIL 2-0 JUV | 8.0% | |
| MIL 0-1 JUV | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).