MIL vs LAZ
AC Milan (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 46.9% fair 2.13
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
LAZ win 27.8% fair 3.60
Expected Goals
MIL
1.57
—
1.13
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 LAZ | 11.9% | |
| MIL 1-0 LAZ | 10.5% | |
| MIL 2-1 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| MIL 2-0 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| MIL 0-1 LAZ | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).