MIL vs LEC
AC Milan (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 3-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.01 / ×0.94
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MIL win 62.8% fair 1.59
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
LEC win 15.6% fair 6.39
Expected Goals
MIL
1.94
—
0.75
LEC
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): MIL ×1.010 (matched 11), LEC ×0.937 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 LEC | 13.2% | |
| MIL 2-0 LEC | 12.8% | |
| MIL 1-1 LEC | 9.9% | |
| MIL 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| MIL 3-0 LEC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).