MIL vs LEC
AC Milan (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
MIL win 58.1% fair 1.72
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
LEC win 18.5% fair 5.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.5% / 22.9% / 16.6%.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.78
—
0.81
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | fair 2.17 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 LEC | 13.3% | |
| MIL 2-0 LEC | 11.9% | |
| MIL 1-1 LEC | 10.8% | |
| MIL 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| MIL 0-0 LEC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).