MIL vs MON
AC Milan (home) vs Monza · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 66.1% fair 1.51
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
MON win 15.3% fair 6.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 70.0% / 17.3% / 12.7%.
Expected Goals
MIL
2.40
—
0.93
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.83 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 MON | 10.3% | |
| MIL 2-1 MON | 9.6% | |
| MIL 1-0 MON | 8.6% | |
| MIL 3-0 MON | 8.3% | |
| MIL 1-1 MON | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).