MIL vs NAP
AC Milan (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 43.6% fair 2.29
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
NAP win 30.9% fair 3.24
Expected Goals
MIL
1.51
—
1.23
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 NAP | 12.0% | |
| MIL 1-0 NAP | 9.8% | |
| MIL 2-1 NAP | 9.1% | |
| MIL 0-1 NAP | 8.0% | |
| MIL 2-0 NAP | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).