MIL vs PAR
AC Milan (home) vs Parma · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
MIL win 57.0% fair 1.76
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
PAR win 18.6% fair 5.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.2% / 24.1% / 16.8%.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.67
—
0.76
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 PAR | 14.7% | |
| MIL 2-0 PAR | 12.3% | |
| MIL 1-1 PAR | 11.2% | |
| MIL 2-1 PAR | 9.3% | |
| MIL 0-0 PAR | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).