MIL vs PAR
AC Milan (home) vs Parma · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
PAR win 15.1% fair 6.63
Expected Goals
MIL
1.90
—
0.71
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 PAR | 13.9% | |
| MIL 2-0 PAR | 13.2% | |
| MIL 1-1 PAR | 9.9% | |
| MIL 2-1 PAR | 9.4% | |
| MIL 3-0 PAR | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).