MIL vs ROM
AC Milan (home) vs Roma · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 37.2% fair 2.69
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
ROM win 37.6% fair 2.66
Expected Goals
MIL
1.41
—
1.44
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-1 ROM | 11.8% | |
| MIL 1-2 ROM | 8.5% | |
| MIL 0-1 ROM | 8.4% | |
| MIL 2-1 ROM | 8.3% | |
| MIL 1-0 ROM | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).