MIL vs SAS
AC Milan (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 61.8% fair 1.62
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
SAS win 18.1% fair 5.53
Expected Goals
MIL
2.23
—
1.04
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| MIL 2-0 SAS | 9.4% | |
| MIL 1-1 SAS | 8.8% | |
| MIL 1-0 SAS | 8.5% | |
| MIL 3-1 SAS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).