MIL vs UDI
AC Milan (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MIL win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 20.6% fair 4.86
UDI win 17.4% fair 5.73
Expected Goals
MIL
2.13
—
0.95
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 UDI | 10.4% | |
| MIL 2-1 UDI | 9.9% | |
| MIL 1-0 UDI | 9.8% | |
| MIL 1-1 UDI | 9.3% | |
| MIL 3-0 UDI | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).