MIL vs VEN
AC Milan (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
MIL win 62.2% fair 1.61
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
VEN win 16.8% fair 5.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.8% / 19.7% / 13.5%.
Expected Goals
MIL
2.08
—
0.81
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 2-0 VEN | 12.1% | |
| MIL 1-0 VEN | 11.6% | |
| MIL 2-1 VEN | 9.7% | |
| MIL 1-1 VEN | 9.4% | |
| MIL 3-0 VEN | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).