MON vs ATA
Monza (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
ATA win 47.6% fair 2.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.2% / 22.4% / 50.4%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.34
—
1.89
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 ATA | 10.0% | |
| MON 1-2 ATA | 9.5% | |
| MON 0-1 ATA | 7.5% | |
| MON 0-2 ATA | 7.1% | |
| MON 2-1 ATA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).