MON vs ATA
Monza (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
MON win 26.6% fair 3.76
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
ATA win 48.9% fair 2.04
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.1% / 23.9% / 53.0%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.05
—
1.72
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 ATA | 11.3% | |
| MON 0-1 ATA | 10.8% | |
| MON 1-2 ATA | 9.7% | |
| MON 0-2 ATA | 9.3% | |
| MON 1-0 ATA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).