MON vs BOL
Monza (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 32.1% fair 3.12
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
BOL win 43.3% fair 2.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.4% / 24.3% / 45.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.30
—
1.63
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 BOL | 11.3% | |
| MON 1-2 BOL | 9.2% | |
| MON 0-1 BOL | 8.7% | |
| MON 2-1 BOL | 7.3% | |
| MON 0-2 BOL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).