MON vs CAG
Monza (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
MON win 36.1% fair 2.77
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
CAG win 37.7% fair 2.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.7% / 26.0% / 39.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.28
—
1.38
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 CAG | 12.3% | |
| MON 0-1 CAG | 9.6% | |
| MON 1-0 CAG | 8.9% | |
| MON 1-2 CAG | 8.5% | |
| MON 2-1 CAG | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).