MON vs COM
Monza (home) vs Como · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
MON win 23.5% fair 4.25
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
COM win 53.4% fair 1.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.8% / 22.0% / 59.1%.
Expected Goals
MON
0.97
—
1.90
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 0-1 COM | 10.8% | |
| MON 1-1 COM | 10.4% | |
| MON 0-2 COM | 10.2% | |
| MON 1-2 COM | 9.9% | |
| MON 0-3 COM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).