MON vs COM
Monza (home) vs Como · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 22.5% fair 4.44
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
COM win 55.7% fair 1.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.9% / 20.8% / 60.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.07
—
2.06
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-2 COM | 9.9% | |
| MON 1-1 COM | 9.6% | |
| MON 0-2 COM | 9.3% | |
| MON 0-1 COM | 9.0% | |
| MON 1-3 COM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).