MON vs FIO
Monza (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
MON win 37.7% fair 2.65
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
FIO win 36.2% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.7% / 25.8% / 37.5%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.34
—
1.36
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 FIO | 12.3% | |
| MON 0-1 FIO | 9.2% | |
| MON 1-0 FIO | 9.0% | |
| MON 1-2 FIO | 8.3% | |
| MON 2-1 FIO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).