MON vs FIO
Monza (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
FIO win 33.8% fair 2.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.9% / 23.8% / 34.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.63
—
1.45
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 FIO | 10.9% | |
| MON 2-1 FIO | 8.8% | |
| MON 1-2 FIO | 7.9% | |
| MON 1-0 FIO | 7.5% | |
| MON 0-1 FIO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).