MON vs FRO
Monza (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 42.1% fair 2.38
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
FRO win 33.7% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.1% / 23.6% / 34.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.66
—
1.48
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 FRO | 10.6% | |
| MON 2-1 FRO | 8.8% | |
| MON 1-2 FRO | 7.9% | |
| MON 1-0 FRO | 7.2% | |
| MON 2-2 FRO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).