MON vs GEN
Monza (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
GEN win 33.6% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.1% / 24.8% / 34.1%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.52
—
1.36
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 GEN | 11.6% | |
| MON 2-1 GEN | 8.8% | |
| MON 1-0 GEN | 8.5% | |
| MON 1-2 GEN | 7.9% | |
| MON 0-1 GEN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).