MON vs INT
Monza (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 16.1% fair 6.21
Draw 16.6% fair 6.02
INT win 67.3% fair 1.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 12.3% / 15.1% / 72.7%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.10
—
2.80
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.7% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.3% | fair 3.95 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-2 INT | 8.7% | |
| MON 1-3 INT | 8.1% | |
| MON 0-2 INT | 7.9% | |
| MON 0-3 INT | 7.4% | |
| MON 1-1 INT | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).