MON vs JUV
Monza (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 25.7% fair 3.90
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
JUV win 51.2% fair 1.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.0% / 22.6% / 54.4%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.14
—
1.87
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 JUV | 10.5% | |
| MON 1-2 JUV | 9.8% | |
| MON 0-1 JUV | 9.2% | |
| MON 0-2 JUV | 8.6% | |
| MON 1-3 JUV | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).