MON vs LAZ
Monza (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 27.9% fair 3.58
Draw 24.2% fair 4.12
LAZ win 47.8% fair 2.09
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.6% / 23.8% / 50.6%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.16
—
1.72
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 LAZ | 11.2% | |
| MON 0-1 LAZ | 9.7% | |
| MON 1-2 LAZ | 9.6% | |
| MON 0-2 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| MON 1-0 LAZ | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).