MON vs LEC
Monza (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 43.4% fair 2.31
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
LEC win 31.2% fair 3.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.6% / 25.1% / 31.3%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.52
—
1.25
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 LEC | 11.9% | |
| MON 1-0 LEC | 9.5% | |
| MON 2-1 LEC | 9.1% | |
| MON 0-1 LEC | 7.8% | |
| MON 1-2 LEC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).