MON vs MIL
Monza (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 23.6% fair 4.24
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
MIL win 54.2% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.6% / 21.4% / 58.0%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.11
—
2.00
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-2 MIL | 9.9% | |
| MON 1-1 MIL | 9.9% | |
| MON 0-2 MIL | 8.9% | |
| MON 0-1 MIL | 8.9% | |
| MON 1-3 MIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).