MON vs NAP
Monza (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 24.1% fair 4.16
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
NAP win 53.6% fair 1.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.2% / 21.6% / 57.2%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.13
—
1.98
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 NAP | 10.0% | |
| MON 1-2 NAP | 9.9% | |
| MON 0-1 NAP | 8.8% | |
| MON 0-2 NAP | 8.8% | |
| MON 1-3 NAP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).