MON vs NAP
Monza (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
MON win 22.7% fair 4.41
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
NAP win 54.3% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.6% / 22.1% / 59.2%.
Expected Goals
MON
0.95
—
1.88
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 0-1 NAP | 11.0% | |
| MON 1-1 NAP | 10.5% | |
| MON 0-2 NAP | 10.4% | |
| MON 1-2 NAP | 9.9% | |
| MON 0-3 NAP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).