MON vs PAR
Monza (home) vs Parma · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
PAR win 30.6% fair 3.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.3% / 26.2% / 30.5%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.42
—
1.15
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 PAR | 12.5% | |
| MON 1-0 PAR | 10.8% | |
| MON 2-1 PAR | 8.9% | |
| MON 0-1 PAR | 8.8% | |
| MON 2-0 PAR | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).