MON vs ROM
Monza (home) vs Roma · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 19.6% fair 5.09
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
ROM win 60.1% fair 1.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 16.1% / 19.2% / 64.7%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.02
—
2.23
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-2 ROM | 9.8% | |
| MON 0-2 ROM | 9.6% | |
| MON 1-1 ROM | 8.8% | |
| MON 0-1 ROM | 8.6% | |
| MON 1-3 ROM | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).