MON vs SAS
Monza (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
MON win 34.2% fair 2.93
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
SAS win 40.4% fair 2.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.3% / 25.1% / 42.6%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.28
—
1.51
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 SAS | 11.8% | |
| MON 0-1 SAS | 9.2% | |
| MON 1-2 SAS | 9.0% | |
| MON 1-0 SAS | 7.8% | |
| MON 2-1 SAS | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).