MON vs TOR
Monza (home) vs Torino · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
TOR win 37.9% fair 2.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.5% / 23.3% / 39.2%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.59
—
1.63
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 TOR | 10.3% | |
| MON 1-2 TOR | 8.4% | |
| MON 2-1 TOR | 8.2% | |
| MON 2-2 TOR | 6.7% | |
| MON 0-1 TOR | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).