MON vs UDI
Monza (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
MON win 32.6% fair 3.07
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
UDI win 41.7% fair 2.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.4% / 25.4% / 44.2%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.21
—
1.51
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 UDI | 12.0% | |
| MON 0-1 UDI | 10.0% | |
| MON 1-2 UDI | 9.1% | |
| MON 1-0 UDI | 8.0% | |
| MON 0-2 UDI | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).