MON vs VEN
Monza (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MON win 48.4% fair 2.06
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
VEN win 27.4% fair 3.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.9% / 23.5% / 26.6%.
Expected Goals
MON
1.76
—
1.22
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.8% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| MON 1-1 VEN | 10.9% | |
| MON 2-1 VEN | 9.6% | |
| MON 1-0 VEN | 8.9% | |
| MON 2-0 VEN | 7.8% | |
| MON 1-2 VEN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MON goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).