NAP vs ATA
Napoli (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
ATA win 26.1% fair 3.84
Expected Goals
NAP
1.77
—
1.19
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 ATA | 10.9% | |
| NAP 2-1 ATA | 9.7% | |
| NAP 1-0 ATA | 9.2% | |
| NAP 2-0 ATA | 8.2% | |
| NAP 1-2 ATA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).