NAP vs BOL
Napoli (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.09 / ×0.95
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NAP win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
BOL win 20.0% fair 5.01
Expected Goals
NAP
1.95
—
0.99
BOL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): NAP ×1.086 (matched 11), BOL ×0.950 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-0 BOL | 10.3% | |
| NAP 1-1 BOL | 10.2% | |
| NAP 2-0 BOL | 10.0% | |
| NAP 2-1 BOL | 10.0% | |
| NAP 3-0 BOL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).