NAP vs BOL
Napoli (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
NAP win 53.7% fair 1.86
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
BOL win 22.6% fair 4.43
Expected Goals
NAP
1.78
—
1.02
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 BOL | 11.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 BOL | 10.9% | |
| NAP 2-1 BOL | 9.8% | |
| NAP 2-0 BOL | 9.7% | |
| NAP 0-1 BOL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).