NAP vs CAG
Napoli (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 59.4% fair 1.68
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
CAG win 18.1% fair 5.53
Expected Goals
NAP
1.87
—
0.86
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-0 CAG | 12.2% | |
| NAP 2-0 CAG | 11.5% | |
| NAP 1-1 CAG | 10.5% | |
| NAP 2-1 CAG | 9.8% | |
| NAP 3-0 CAG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).