NAP vs COM
Napoli (home) vs Como · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
NAP win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
COM win 31.2% fair 3.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.2% / 25.5% / 31.2%.
Expected Goals
NAP
1.48
—
1.22
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-1 COM | 12.1% | |
| NAP 1-0 COM | 9.9% | |
| NAP 2-1 COM | 9.0% | |
| NAP 0-1 COM | 8.2% | |
| NAP 1-2 COM | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).