NAP vs FIO
Napoli (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 63.4% fair 1.58
Draw 20.2% fair 4.95
FIO win 16.4% fair 6.09
Expected Goals
NAP
2.16
—
0.91
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 FIO | 10.8% | |
| NAP 1-0 FIO | 10.0% | |
| NAP 2-1 FIO | 9.9% | |
| NAP 1-1 FIO | 9.2% | |
| NAP 3-0 FIO | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).