NAP vs FRO
Napoli (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
NAP win 65.7% fair 1.52
Draw 19.7% fair 5.07
FRO win 14.6% fair 6.85
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 71.0% / 18.1% / 11.0%.
Expected Goals
NAP
2.19
—
0.73
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 FRO | 13.0% | |
| NAP 1-0 FRO | 11.8% | |
| NAP 3-0 FRO | 9.5% | |
| NAP 2-1 FRO | 9.4% | |
| NAP 1-1 FRO | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).