NAP vs GEN
Napoli (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NAP win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 21.3% fair 4.70
GEN win 16.7% fair 5.98
Expected Goals
NAP
2.01
—
0.85
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 2-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| NAP 1-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| NAP 2-1 GEN | 9.8% | |
| NAP 1-1 GEN | 9.8% | |
| NAP 3-0 GEN | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).